Every lock published · Every loss included
187 graded locks — every one public
83.4% of our locks called it right.
Across every graded lock on Bitcoin's 15-minute market — not a hand-picked window. QuarterLine locks only when its rules pass and sits out the rest, and every miss stays on the public record, right next to the wins.
The win rate counts direction: whether the called side won. It is not a profit figure — the price you pay decides that, which is why every lock is published with its entry price, and the fee calculator is free.
The record — so far
15 wins, 0 losses in the last 15 graded locks
A win rate is only half the maths — Kalshi's fee sets the break-even every trade must beat. Run the fee calculator.
Recent form, oldest to newest. Figures as of 2026-11-11. On the live system the record is computed from the stored locks, not typed in by hand — see the full record page.
Live calls
One call per window
Locked, leaning, or sitting out. If a window is too unclear, the system says so instead of forcing a guess.
The honest maths
Price decides the profit
A call at 90¢ and the same call at 70¢ are different trades. Every lock carries its entry price, and the calculator lays out the fee maths before you risk a cent.
The record
Losses stay published
The record is append-only. A graded lock is never edited or deleted — the misses sit next to the wins, permanently, for anyone to check.
Members and trial users see the current window as the system reads it — the target, the live price, and the lock the moment it freezes.
How it works, in brief
A target is set
Each 15-minute window opens with a target price — a 60-second average of the official Bitcoin index. The contract pays out on whether the closing average lands above or below it.
The rules decide
The system measures how far price sits from the target, scaled by volatility, and checks it against gates for the time left and the price on offer. Most windows fail a gate — and sitting out is the default.
Locks are graded in public
When every gate passes, the lock is frozen and later graded against Kalshi's official settlement. Win or lose, it goes on the record. Nothing is backfilled and nothing is deleted.
New to these markets? Read the beginner guide →
Markets must earn their place
BTC is the founding market. Other 15-minute markets are research until they prove themselves: a market is only packaged for members after it passes the same standing bar on its own paper record and proves its fills. A listed market whose record later hits our kill line is pulled from new sales — its page and record stay public.
First in line: XRP (KXXRP15M) — 21 of 21 paper trades won. It passed. XRP is the first market package in line after BTC.
Get launch emails
Checkout is open now on the pricing page — the first 50 members lock the founding price of $45/month for as long as their membership stays active (standard price $60/month). Join this list for market-launch announcements and record milestones. One email when there is news — no drip campaign, no spam.
QuarterLine is an educational information service. It is not financial advice, it does not place trades for you, and it is not affiliated with Kalshi. Prediction-market contracts are risky and can lose their full value — never trade money you cannot afford to lose.